Here’s a shocking revelation: Pakistan’s urbanization rate might be nearly double what official figures suggest. But here’s where it gets controversial—while the government claims only 39% of the population lives in urban areas, a World Bank study using satellite imagery and advanced methodology puts the figure at a staggering 88%. This massive discrepancy isn’t just a numbers game; it has far-reaching implications for policy, planning, and public services. So, what’s going on?
The World Bank’s policy research paper, titled When Does a Village Become a Town? Revisiting Pakistan’s Urbanisation Using Satellite Data, dives deep into this issue. The problem? Pakistan’s official urbanization estimates rely heavily on administrative boundaries rather than actual population density or settlement patterns. And this is the part most people miss—these boundaries fail to capture the true urban character of many areas, especially secondary cities and peri-urban regions, which are driving much of the country’s urban growth.
According to the study, 46% of Pakistan’s population lives in high-density cities, while another 42% resides in moderately dense urban centers. Together, these areas account for 88% of the population, a stark contrast to the official 39%. This gap isn’t just about semantics; it’s about misclassification that undermines property tax revenues, skews socioeconomic indicators, and hampers effective public service delivery.
Take property taxes, for example. When areas are misclassified as rural, they’re taxed at lower rates, even if they function as urban centers. This reduces revenue that could fund essential services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Similarly, misclassification masks the true extent of urban-rural disparities, making it harder to design policies that address real needs.
Here’s a bold question to ponder: What if Pakistan’s urbanization has been systematically underestimated for decades? The last time official classifications reflected on-the-ground realities was in 1972. Since then, responsibility has shifted to provincial and municipal committees, which aren’t required to consider population density or objective metrics when defining urban areas. This lack of formal criteria has led to outdated boundaries that fail to keep pace with rapid urban growth.
The study also challenges the common narrative that Pakistan’s urbanization is driven by megacities like Lahore and Karachi. While these cities are growing, much of the urban population boom is happening in smaller, intermediate centers and peri-urban areas. These regions, often overlooked in official data, are now home to nearly half the population. This shift has transformed previously rural settlements into vibrant urban hubs, particularly as people move away from agriculture.
Using the Degree of Urbanisation (DoU) method, which leverages satellite data to assess population density, the study provides a more accurate and globally comparable view of urbanization. For instance, Islamabad’s urban population is estimated at 90% under the DoU, compared to just 47% in official data. Similarly, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s urban population is nearly three times higher than the official 15%.
But here’s the kicker: This isn’t just a statistical debate. It’s about how we understand and address Pakistan’s urban challenges. If we’re working with flawed data, how can we design effective policies? How can we ensure equitable resource allocation when the very definition of ‘urban’ is outdated?
The report concludes that Pakistan’s urban landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation since the early 2000s. As rural populations shift away from agriculture, new urban centers are emerging, reshaping the country’s socioeconomic fabric. Yet, official classifications remain stuck in the past, failing to reflect this reality.
So, what do you think? Is Pakistan’s urbanization rate closer to 39% or 88%? And more importantly, how should policymakers address this discrepancy? Let’s spark a conversation—share your thoughts in the comments below!
